From a distance the signs are indicating that this will look like a rapid recovery for the UK economy, with Andy Haldane, Economist at the Bank of England saying, “The recovery in the UK is coming ‘sooner and faster’ than expected, leaving us optimistic for a V-shaped bounceback”. However, while we’re in the thick of it, expect a series of interruptions and false starts until the risk of additional spikes and waves of COVID-19 reduces and further lockdowns become more remote.
For more than 100 days the UK has been under various states of lockdown. Over the last number of weeks those lockdowns have eased significantly, with non-essential retail opening mid-June and pubs and hospitality this past weekend.
With so many uncertainties, the question to ask isn’t what will change in three- to six- months’ time but what won’t change. What are the inherent human truths that underpin behaviour and decision-making?