If you are fortunate enough to still be working, chances are you are busier than ever, if you have lost your job or been furloughed you will be doing everything you can to possibly find another position.
However, the wheels of innovation and change continue to turn in digital advertising and adtech the monetisation engine of the free and open internet. Many people simply do not have the time in the current climate to mine the social noise for real information versus sales pitches.
The global lockdown coupled with a recent redundancy has left me with a lot of spare time on my hands so in my search for a new role, I have been compiling a lot of notes and I am sharing these below to help others who are simply too busy with work to research daily or those looking for another job.
Prior to the global pandemic, many advertising companies were performing well despite the perception from some that adtech was a high-risk investment category. This visual from the Q4 LUMA report shows almost all publicly traded adtech stocks being up as the sector continued to see increased advertiser investment, M&A, and innovation in data-driven advertising practices.
Before we get into the weeds, let’s look at some of the published numbers illustrating where we are as an industry today post COVID and some important Google SameSite & IAB Tech Lab TCF updates.
A WARC (World Advertising Research Center) report published recently said Global ad spend will fall by 8.1 per cent this year to $563bn. That is a big decrease but nowhere near as bad as some of the headlines were originally suggesting.
Trends By Region
- Europe: European adspend is forecast to fall by 12.2 per cent ($18.1bn) to $129.9bn this year, with France leading key market decline at 18.7 per cent (down $3.1bn to $13.4bn). The UK (-16.4 per cent, down $5.1bn to $31.3bn), Germany (-6.1 per cent, down $1.5bn to $24.9bn), Spain (-6.0 per cent, down $500m to $6.6bn), Italy (-21.7 per cent, down $2.1bn to $7.6bn) and Russia (-12.3 per cent, down $1.2bn to $8.5bn) will also record sharp falls.
- North America: region where 39.5 per cent of global adspend is transacted. Ad investment is expected to fall by 3.7 per cent, or $8.5bn, to $222.5bn this year, encompassing a 3.5 per cent fall in the US (down $7.7bn to $221.3bn) and a 6.5 per cent dip in Canada (to $11.5bn). This compares with pre-outbreak forecasts of 8.8 per cent and 1.9 per cent growth respectively.
- Asia-Pacific: adspend is expected to fall 7.7 per cent ($14.4bn) to $173.5bn in 2020, accounting for 30.8 per cent of the global total. China (-8.6 per cent, down $7.5bn to $80.0bn), Japan (-6.4 per cent, down $2.5bn to $36.2bn) and Australia (-8.2 per cent, down $1.1bn to $11.9bn) are all set to record declines. Indian growth will ease to 0.7 per cent to $9.4bn in 2020.
- Latin America: adspend is set to drop 20.7 per cent (by $5.6bn) to $21.4bn this year, led by a sharp decline in Brazil (-22.5 per cent, down $3.4bn to $11.5bn), where the Covid-19 outbreak has been particularly acute.
- Middle East: while not as severely impacted by coronavirus as other regions, adspend is still set to fall 15.1 per cent (by $1.8bn) to $10.4bn in 2020, as oil-rich economies suffer from falling commodity prices.
- Africa: spend is expected to decrease by 19.5 per cent to $5.3bn this year, although this could be more severe if the outbreak worsens in the region.
One question those on the buy-side need to wrestle with when it comes to Apps is what is more important, context, or audience? With all of the challenges facing display & its targeting in 2020, I think we are going to see a big uptick in App buying this year & rightly so, it has a common, open, portable & deterministic identifier at its core. For how much longer remains to be seen…
When it comes to the application of location targeting in mobile I have seen first hand how powerful it can be when driving business outcomes for advertisers & harnessed in a privacy compliment way (Just look at how well companies such as blis.com are doing at the moment).
We will see a lot of innovation in the location sector over the next 12 months, especially as other targeting methods become increasingly difficult to execute at scale.
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